letter from SPARTY : "Race in election"

"An interesting discussion tonight on the Rachel Maddow show about the "Bradley Effect" in elections (recall that in 1982 Tom Bradley had a sizeable lead in the polls for mayor of LA but lost the election): resulting rule is that a black candidate running against a white candidate should have a lead of greater than 5% or he/she will lose.

"Maddow interviewed a political scientist from Princeton, Melissa Harris-Lacewell, who has studied this issue. She says it is operative in districts where there is a overwhelming white majority. Where that isn't the case (in the campaign for the U.S. Senate in a state like Illinois, for example) a black candidate suffers little when running against a white candidate. In fact, in districts where there is a sizeable minority population there is a reverse Bradley Effect - white support for the black candidate is greater than would be thought likely. She says there is evidence of a significant Bradley Effect going on in three states (she didn't name them) but a reverse Bradley Effect in 12 states.

"Maddow asked her what the McCain campaign should be doing in order to encourage the Bradley Effect, and Harris-Lacewell said imply his differentness by suggesting he has Muslim connections and suggest he also has connections with terrorists - anything to make him, in addition to his race, to be so different that he's dangerous."